Employment growth in India slowed in last two years: CARE Ratings
As per the study, the aggregate headcount or employment increased at a CAGR of 3.3% over a four-year period from 2014-15 to 2018-19 compared with a CAGR of 7.5% in gross domestic product (GDP) during this period. In terms of growth in employment o...
Based on a set of 1,938 companies spread across all sectors, the study said the value of sales in FY19 was Rs 69 lakh crore thus covering the entire corporate sector. It includes all listed public sector entities but the SME segment may find less representation in this sample.
As per the study, the aggregate headcount or employment increased at a CAGR of 3.3% over a four-year period from 2014-15 to 2018-19 compared with a CAGR of 7.5% in gross domestic product (GDP) during this period.
In terms of growth in employment on an annual basis, it was 2.5% in 2015-16 and 4.1% in 2016-17.
“Therefore, there is a case that supports the argument that employment growth has not been commensurate with GDP growth with a difference of 4.2% in CAGR during this period,” the study showed.
It showed that around half the companies had witnessed a decline in growth in employment over this time period while 35% of them had witnessed growth of 11.5% on the aggregate each with an above average CAGR of 3.3%.
The ratings agency highlighted that core industries have witnessed “virtually negative growth in headcount”, with crude oil just about maintaining the employment level. These industries have been impacted by the slowdown in GDP growth as well as the challenges on the NPA side for banks.
A similar picture is witnessed for the heavy investment industries where growth has tended to be negative for power and capital goods and just 0.4% for infra.
However, the consumer oriented industries show a varied pattern with deceleration in employment in agricultural and durable goods but an increase for FMCG and textiles albeit at a lower than sample average of 3.3%.
“This is reflective of the slow uptick in consumer demand which has affected these industries not just in terms of sales as it evident from financial performance numbers but also a cautious approach to manpower planning,” CARE said in the study.
Among manufacturing industries, healthcare and automobiles registered a healthy growth of 4.8% in employment whereas the financial sector’s performance was the impressive with banks, NBFCs and insurance witnessing impressive growth
In the non-financial sector segment, the IT and retail industries registered near or above average growth while telecom, hospitality and realty witnessed negative growth.
The telecom industry has been through upheavals which have led to several mergers that have impacted headcount. In case of realty, the decline in growth in business impacted job prospects, it said.
“The CAGR in employment and growth in physical production for industries in the manufacturing sector are not well related,” CARE Ratings concluded, adding that growth in employment has trailed growth in GDP indicating that the two have not moved in commensurate terms, and that service sector has performed better than manufacturing with financial sector industries doing better in terms of higher recruitment.