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We may not get good monsoon in coming years also: GP Sharma, Skymet

GP Sharma-Skymet-1200
LPA or long period average rainfall is down by about 40-50 mm. That indicates it could be following the same track in the next few monsoons also, says GP Sharma, Vice President of Meteorology, Skymet Weather Services. Excerpts from an interview with ETNOW.

What is the total rain deficit now? After this pause of two, three days in terms of rains, what is the number that we are looking at?
The rain deficit as of today stands at 13% for the season. In June, the deficit was 33%. Due to good rain in the first half of July, it dropped to 12% but in the last three-four days or so, again it is climbing. Against the very high normal of these days, it still managed to climb to 13%. By the time the record sheet comes today, it should be about 14%. I expect the rainfall to be a little poorer in the next few days and the deficit may climb a little further to 15-16% which is definitely a matter of concern. Having deficiency of this order almost 45 days into the season, in the rainiest month July half way through, obviously is a serious situation.

We have an even more serious report from Skymet and that says monsoons are going to be weak for the next two years in India. How did Skymet come to that conclusion?
The monsoon has its own cycles. Sometimes in a period of decade or two, you have more number of droughts than other decades. Similarly, at the moment, we are in a cycle which is experiencing below normal monsoon. Right from 2001 onwards, we have had five droughts and two in the recent past -- 2014 and 2015.

Even last year, it narrowly escaped the scare of drought. So, we are in a cycle wherein the monsoon rainfall is on the decrease. Over the last three decades, there has been a decrease of about 40-50 mm average rainfall drop for the monsoon season as such. LPA or long period average is down by about 40-50 mm. That indicates it could be following the same track in the next few monsoons also.

We have not seen a good monsoon for more than six years now. It is either drought or a little below normal or less than 100%. Also, El Nino conditions possibly will extend. We are not very sure how is it going to be the beginning of the next year as such. In any case, the conditions are not very encouraging for the coming years also . We may not see a bountiful or a good monsoon for some time.
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