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    Q2 preview: Asian Paints likely to post YoY decline in profits; quarterly earnings could improve significantly

    Synopsis

    Most brokerages expect the company’s profits to dip between 3-14 per cent from a year ago, while net sales may rise between 1.9-6 per cent.

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    The key moniterables will be the recovery trajectory in October, rebating and discounting trends and dealer addition trajectory.

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    Top paints maker Asian Paints may post muted earnings in the September quarter, compared to a year before, but it will display significant pickup from the preceding quarter as the country eased lockdown measures amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Most brokerages expect the company’s profits to dip between 3-14 per cent from a year ago, while net sales may rise between 1.9-6 per cent.

    The key moniterables will be the recovery trajectory in October, rebating and discounting trends and dealer addition trajectory.

    HDFC Securities expects the company to post a 14 per cent decline in net profit from a year ago, but a sequential improvement of 230 per cent. It sees net sales rising 3.7 per cent from a year ago, and 79.2 per cent on a sequential basis.

    The brokerage said it expects a full recovery in the anchor biz -- decorative paints in the September quarter, and its channel checks suggest that Eastern region followed by Northern region and Southern region have progressively picked up while the Western region lags the recovery curve.

    “Value will continue to lag volume as the focus on utilising capacity via aggressive push in economy emulsions, primer, and putty continues. We build in 10/-5 per cent volume growth or realisation decline in 2Q,” HDFC Securities said in a note.

    Kotak Institutional Equities expects Asian Paints to report a 2.9 per cent decline in its adjusted net profit from a year ago, while it sees revenues edge up 1.9 per cent.

    On a sequential basis, the brokerage sees net profits jump of 219.9 per cent, while revenues may improve by 76 per cent.

    Citigroup expects Asian Paints to post a 10 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in net profit, while it expects sales to inch up by 6 per cent. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, the net profit may jump 239 per cent, while sales may rise 84 per cent.

    For the year to date, shares of Asian Paints have risen nearly 16 per cent. The stock had scaled a record high of Rs 2,122.80 last week.




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