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As Modi 2.0 hits half-century mark, D-Street counts Rs 12,00,000 crore loss

Slowing growth is a problem for an economy that aspires to acquire a size of $3 tn this year.

Updated: Jul 22, 2019, 12.36 PM IST
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Kunj Bansal, Partner & CIO, Sarthi Group, said when long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax was re-introduced in 2018, the market did not perform well for 10-12 months.
NEW DELHI: Investors expecting a shift in market momentum following the second mandate for Modi government in the recent Lok Sabha elections are in for disappointment.

Investor sentiments soured in the first 50 days of Modi 2.0, with stock investors losing nearly Rs 12 lakh crore worth of wealth within a short period.

Market value of the BSE-listed stocks have plunged by Rs 11.70 lakh crore, or 7.5 per cent, to Rs 144 lakh crore from the recent high of Rs 156 lakh crore hit on June 3. Modi assumed office on May 30.

Nine of every 10 stocks (2,294 out of 2,664) that traded on BSE are in the red since then; over 60 per cent stocks (1,632) are down over 10 per cent, while one-third of them (903) have slipped over 20 per cent.

While the government has made sure it does not deviate from fiscal prudence, a few of Budget proposals such as the surcharge in the high income-tax brackets and the proposal to increase minimum public float of listed companies to 35 per cent from 25 per cent have been seen as negatives by market participants.

Slowing growth is another problem for an economy that aspires to acquire a size of $3 trillion this year and $5 trillion by 2024.

Kunj Bansal, Partner & CIO, Sarthi Group, said when long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax was re-introduced in 2018, the market did not perform well for 10-12 months.

“Taxation does have its impact on overall market valuation. If I was expecting 30 per cent returns from the market, after this extra levy my returns will come down to 25-26 per cent. To that extent, I will have to bring down the valuation of that market. So that indeed has had an impact. Over time, it will get normalized,” Bansal told ET Now.

Data showed FPIs have sold 7,712 crore worth of equities so far this month. They infused Rs 2,595 crore in June against Rs 7,919 crore in May. Sensex is down 1,800 points, or 4.4 per cent, at 38,100 level under Modi 2.0, while the BSE smallcap index has plunged 12 per cent to 13,167 in the same period.

Lack of transmission of rate cuts, rising cost of capital for corporates, tepid consumer demand and resultant weakness in high-frequency economic data are weighing on the market. Uncertainty over US Fed rate cuts and tensions in West Asia are also adding to the already fragile market sentiment.

“There is simply no demand for loans right now. This is unfortunate. There were hopes that after a strong majority at the Centre you would see more government spending, but that simply has not come through yet,” said Mark Matthews of Julius Baer.

“The Indian market has certainly been a laggard this year. Investors who had anticipated a better market after the elections are disappointed,” he said.

Vodafone Idea, Central Bank of India, GIC are among 360-odd stocks which have hit their all-time lows during this period. Stocks such as Jet Airways, PC Jeweller, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Capital, Jain Irrigation Systems, DHFL, Reliance Power Indiabulls Integrated Services, Jaiprakash Associates, CG Power & Industrial Solutions and Yes Bank have tumbled 40-70 per cent.

Porinju Veliyath of Equity Intelligence last week told his clients the monetary impact of some of the changes proposed in the Budget was minimal, but the message it sent out to the larger investment community was rather regressive.

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