Inflation data, Q2 results may keep equities jittery
"Dismal IIP numbers suggest pressure on the rupee and more rate cuts coming."
The Indian rupee's movement against the US dollar in the backdrop of Brexit and impact of rising geo-political tensions in the Middle East and its effect on crude oil prices may also affect the investor sentiments.
Hindustan Unilever, ACC, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, Wipro, Mindtree, Cyient, TVS Motor, Ambuja Cements, Reliance Industries and several others are likely to announce their Q2 earnings results during the week, starting October 14.
"Developments over the missile strike on Iranian tanker, Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping summit in Chennai and Brexit issue will sway the investor sentiments," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
"Over the next few days, few heavyweights will be announcing results, which could keep the markets volatile," Khemka said.
According to Vinod Nair, Geojit Financial Services' Research Head, the preview analysis of Q2 result is muted due to no real increase in demand and prices, which may impact the market performance during the month.
"The August IIP data, which declined to - 1.1 per cent, indicates that the risk of slowdown is likely to reflect in Q2 corporate earnings," Nair said.
On Friday, official data showed that contraction in manufacturing activity slowed India's factory output growth to (-)1.1 per cent in August from a 4.6 per cent rise reported in July.
The growth has hit the 81-month low.
"The markets will react to the poor August IIP number," said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities. Release of RBI MPC minutes and China Q3 GDP number, both due on October 18, would also be watched closely, Jasani said.
Macro-economic data point of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for September will be released on October 14. The balance of trade data for September will also be released during the week.
"Dismal IIP numbers suggest pressure on the rupee and more rate cuts coming," said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities. The rupee might appreciate a bit within an expected range of 70.60 to 71.30, Gupta added.
On technical charts, the NSE Nifty50 remains in an immediate uptrend. "The Nifty holding above the 50-day SMA and bouncing back this week, the bulls do seem to have an upper hand, at least for the short term," Jasani said.
"Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 11,363 is taken out. Crucial supports to watch for resumption of weakness is now at 11,158," he said.