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MACD shows select PSUs, HDFC & Tata Motors among stocks set to rally

NEW DELHI: Benchmark equity indices have been trading in a range for the past couple of sessions. For Nifty50, the 11,400 level is proving to be the upper limit of this range since the beginning of October.

Indecisive candles on the daily charts are making investors nervous. But momentum indicator MACD (moving average convergence divergence) gave buy signals on at least three dozen stocks across market-caps.

The indicator has signalled a bullish crossover for 39 stocks that have been seeing strong trading volumes of late, lending credence to the emerging trend.

The list included many PSU stocks such as Rail Vikas Nigam, ONGC, NHPC and REC. Tata Motors, HDFC, ICICI Lombard, Strides Pharma, Future Retail and Indiabulls Real Estate have also seen similar bullish trends.

up 39 a
Up 39 b

The MACD is known for signalling trend reversals in traded securities or indices. It is the difference between the 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages.

A nine-day exponential moving average, called the Signal Line, is plotted on top of the MACD to reflect ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ opportunities.

When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal, indicating that the price of the security may see an upward movement and vice versa.

Twenty-one stocks, including Ashok Leyland, BPCL, Fortis Healthcare, HDFC Life, NIIT and Muthoot Finance, have seen bearish crossovers.

down 21 a
Down 21 b

Analysts said the MACD indicator should not be seen in isolation, as it may not be sufficient to take a trading call, just the way a fundamental analyst cannot give a ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ recommendation using a single valuation ratio.

As for Nifty50, retail traders are finding it difficult to trade, as there is no clear direction. To make it worse, the market is correcting all of a sudden to catch traders on the wrong foot, said Sameet Chavan of Angel Broking.

“It would be important for Nifty50 to spend at least one day beyond 11,400 level to achieve gains towards the 11,540-11,600 zone. It is necessary to stay light within this range, but one should ideally look to trade within this band. That said, we could see ample of opportunities apart from index trades, as so many individual stocks are still providing better and reliable trades,” Chavan said.

The NSE barometer has been holding ground above its 21-day EMA on a closing basis for the past four sessions while the RSI indicator is hovering above the 50 mark.

“Going ahead, it would be essential for the index to see a sustained move above 11,400 to confirm a shift in orbit on the upside,” YES Securities said.

Understanding MACD
ongc-snip-1

A closer look at the stock chart of ONGC showed whenever the MACD line has breached above the Signal Line, the stock has shown an upward momentum and vice versa. On Tuesday, the scrip traded 1.18 per cent higher at Rs 136.85 on NSE.
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