It is inconceivable that he was unaware of the numerous methodological shortcomings that are common knowledge among economists.
Th CSO is silent on the issue and the PMEAC paper, while raising doubts about Subramanian’s paper, doesn’t give an adequate explanation of the dissonance between many leading and coincident indicators and GDP.
Monsoon has progressed more slowly than usual after hitting Kerala nearly a week late. Monsoon rains have been 44% lower-than-average so far in June, delaying the sowing of summer-sown crops and raising concerns that parts of the country could face a worsening drought.This shortfall could have a major impact on consumer demand, the overall economy and financial markets.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast average rainfall in 2019, while the country's only private forecaster Skymet has predicted below-normal rainfall.
The health index is a composite measure of states and union territories based on 23 health indicators with major weightage given to mortality rate, total fertility rate and sex ratio, among other parameters.
The outlook for the country's manufacturing sector in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal has moderated as only 41 per cent of respondents in a FICCI survey expected higher output growth during the ongoing quarter compared to 54 per cent in the January-March quarter, as per the industry chamber report released on Sunday.
The official rainfall season starts from June 1 to September 30, but the overall monsoon deficiency until June 22 still remains around 39 per cent.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, delayed rainfall for over two weeks brought all India rainfall level to lower than that of normal estimates.
"We revise down our real GDP forecast for FY20 to 6.8 per cent YoY versus 7 per cent earlier," the bank said.
To reach the $5 trillion mark by 2024, the economy would have to grow at over 12% a year.
EAC says Subramanian relied more on private agencies while raising doubts over CSO data.
Agriculture, industry, manufacturing services take a hit; state finance minister blames deficient rain for decline.
According to TeamLease Services biannual 'Employment Outlook' report for April-September FY20, these industries will witness a 2 per cent increase in net employment.
As on July 1, 2018, sanctioned government service posts in group A, B, C and D were 7.17 lakh and the number of these vacant stood at 1.91 lakh, or 26.6 per cent, the survey stated.
The global rating agency cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.6 per cent.
Subramanian makes self-contradictory claims and draws mathematically incorrect conclusions.
The journalist in Subramanian has overtaken the economist and the outcome is not fragrant, Aiyar says.
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