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    Goldman Sachs says present economic crisis bigger than that of 2008 as slump more protracted

    Synopsis

    The comment comes amid growth slowing down to a six- year low of 5 per cent in the June quarter, which has been followed by a rash of downward revision in growth estimates.

    (Representative image)
    MUMBAI: The consumption slump, a major challenge afflicting the economy, cannot be attributed to the NBFC crisis as it predates the first default by infra lender IL&FS, says a brokerage, which has also slashed growth forecast to 6 per cent with a downward bias.

    Many people attribute the deepening slowdown in consumption to the NBFC crisis that began in September 2018 when IL&FS went belly up following which consumption financing - a forte of shadow banks, stopped with a chill in disbursements by these players.

    According to Prachi Mishra, chief economist at Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs, her analysis indicates that consumption has been falling since January 2018, which is much before the end August 2018 default by IL&FS which triggered the liquidity crisis for NBFCs.

    She said the fall in consumption is responsible for a third of the overall dip in overall growth, with the global slowdown coupled with funding constraints.

    "There is a slowdown and the growth numbers have fallen by 2 percentage points," Mishra said, speaking at an event.

    However, she expects growth to tick up in the second half, courtesy the easy money policy of the RBI which has slashed the key policy rates by a record five times or by 135 bps to a decadal low of 5.15 per cent since February and also the push to sentiment from the growth enhancing measures like the recent massive tax giveaways to corporates.

    Mishra said investments and exports have been sliding for a long time, but it is the steep consumption slump which has is the new pain area.

    "The present slowdown is protracted and has lasted for over 20 months now," Mishra said, adding this is different from the growth headwinds like demonetisation or even the 2008 financial crisis, which were temporary in nature.

    The comments come amid growth slowing down to a six- year low of 5 per cent in the June quarter, which has been followed by a rash of downward revision in growth estimates to the tune of 70-110 bps, including by the RBI which now expects the economy to expand by 6.1 per cent and also by multilateral agencies like IMF and the World Bank.

    Research by the brokerage points out that 40 per cent of the pain is coming from the slump in global trade, over 30 per cent from consumption slowdown and the rest is due to the severe funding constraints. Addressing the same event, Srei Infra Finance chairman Hemant Kanoria said there is a need for the economy not to be "messed" around for political gains.

    Kanoria said his company has cut down on disbursements and chosen to focus on holding on to liquidity for the rainy day, which has resulted in a sharp 30 per cent dip in new construction equipment hiring.

    Highlighting that this is a broader trend among the shadow banks, Mishra said NBFCs' credit growth has dipped to 13-14 per cent now as against a growth of 24 per cent till the recent past and blamed it on the slowing demand for loans, the increased regulatory pressures and a risk aversion.

    NBFCs are show shy of lending that they are preferring to invest in government bonds rather than making loans, she said, adding this aspect needs to be broken.
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    11 Comments on this Story

    Vidyaranya Vijaypura379 days ago
    People should be the priority not goi revenue receipts. Allow free trade in precious and semi precious metals, people will be able to sell it easily and invest it back and will add to economy, allow open market for international buyers and sellers hence Indian sellers get the best price. Remove gst on fuel supplied to Indian railways and state run public transport on condition that proportionally they reduce fare. Make certain commodity like Tea and spices tradeable without tax in sez without restrictions.Shut down unproductive goi enterprises and cut down goi administrative expenses only goi officials are becoming fatter at the cost of common man!
    Ramesh Shah406 days ago
    IT ALL STARTED ON 8 TH NOVEMBER OF 2016 N SUBSEQUENT GST IN 2017 ...... THE REALITY CAME INTO LIMELIGHT IN 2018/19 ...... WHEN ALL THE PICTURES GOT SHABBY.....
    EVERY WORLD COUNTRIES. HAVE THEIR OWN CALCULATION THEORIES BUT OURS SPOILT BY OUR PEOPLE FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER......???
    Hemant Pisat406 days ago
    Probably safely we can say the disturbance started back in 2016 post unnecessary demonetisation, that was followed by neck break slide in small scale industry and rural demand slide on immediate basis which slowly percolated to urban unemployment and job losses. All above is a common sense unacknowledged by policy makers. Stock market debacle & FPI show off triggered the debate and got some relief later. But real spenders consumers are not in right shape to splurge to support economic growth. Here the real stimulants could be tweaking GST on fuels, electricity and liquors, that may bring in win win for all big way with near term impact and gradually by March economic conditions becomes stable. The ball is in court with Modi, Sitharaman, GST Council & worlds most intelligent Niti Aayog.
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