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    Half of Indians may have had coronavirus by next February, government panel estimates

    Synopsis

    "Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February," Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.

    PTI
    Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model.
    Coronavirus

    COVID-19 CASES

    Confirmed
    9,462,809
    Deaths
    137,621
    At least half of India's 1.3 billion people are likely to have been infected with the new coronavirus by next February, helping slow the spread of the disease, a member of a central government committee tasked with providing projections said on Monday.

    India has so far reported 7.55 million cases of the coronavirus and is second only to the United States in terms of total infections.

    But COVID-19 infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.

    "Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February," Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.

    The committee's estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the federal government's serological surveys, which showed that only around 14 per cent of the population had been infected, as of September.

    But Agrawal said serological surveys might not be able to get sampling absolutely correct because of the sheer size of the population that they were surveying.

    Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model.

    "We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories – reported cases and infections that do not get reported," Agrawal said.

    The committee warned that their projections would not hold up if precautions were not followed, and cases could spike by up to 2.6 million infections in a single month if measures such as social distancing and wearing masks were ignored.

    Experts have warned that infections could rise in India as the holiday season nears, with celebrations for the Hindu festivals of Durga Puja and Diwali due this month and in mid-November, respectively.

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    18 Comments on this Story

    srinivas42 days ago
    Read with admission of Community Transmission by the concerned,low mortality rate is intriguing which by default means that Natural Immunity has taken over due to our unique DNA & Food Habits!
    Ravi Punuru42 days ago
    The report is realistic
    sameer burande42 days ago
    Well ... that shows that the mortality rate is way below what was first assumed. Which then makes us think whether this lockdown which is leading to the economic meltdown rather than the covid itself is justified? Time to reopen everything I feel as even CDC of the USA has given numbers stating the average recovery rate till the age of 60 is 99.3% . The lockdowns will kill more people than the actual virus itself if the things dont go back to "the old normal" !!
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